How Accurate Is a Zestimate? Zillow's Own Numbers, and What They Mean in DFW
Here's the direct answer, straight from Zillow's published accuracy data (last refreshed June 2, 2026): the nationwide median error rate for the Zestimate is 1.76% for homes that are on the market and 7.22% for homes that aren't listed (source).
In Dallas–Fort Worth specifically, Zillow's numbers are a little better than the national figures: a 1.62% median error for on-market homes and a 6.12% median error for off-market homes (source).
That gap, under 2% when a home is listed, roughly 6% when it isn't, is the whole story. If you're checking the Zestimate on a home that's actively for sale, it's usually close. If you're a homeowner looking up your own house to figure out what it's worth before you sell, which is when most people care, you're looking at the off-market number. And "median error" means half of homes land inside that 6.12%, and half miss by more.
So the Zestimate isn't junk, and we're not going to pretend it is. It's a legitimately useful starting point. But it's a starting point with a built-in margin of error that gets expensive fast at DFW prices. Let's walk through the math.
The two Zestimate numbers, and which one applies to you
Zillow publishes separate accuracy figures for on-market and off-market homes, and they measure them differently (source):
Scenario (DFW) | Median error | Homes measured | Within 5% | Within 10% | Within 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
On-market | 1.62% | 72,200 | 87.95% | 96.49% | 98.99% |
Off-market | 6.12% | 2.6 million | 42.43% | 69.02% | 88.50% |
One detail worth understanding: per Zillow's published methodology, on-market accuracy is measured using the last Zestimate shown before the home goes pending, and Zillow notes that once a home is listed, the model incorporates listing information, including the list price (source). In other words, the low on-market error rate describes a Zestimate that has already seen what the seller and their agent priced the home at. That's not a criticism; it's just how the model works, and Zillow says so plainly. But it means the on-market figure can't tell you what your home is worth before you've priced it. For that decision, the off-market number is the honest benchmark.
What a 6.12% miss looks like in dollars
Percentages feel small until you put a DFW price tag on them. Apply the 6.12% off-market median error to Zillow's own average home values and the dollars add up fast:
Market | Average home value (Zillow) | 6.12% median error |
|---|---|---|
Dallas | $312,024 | ≈ $19,100 |
Coppell | $626,250 | ≈ $38,300 |
Those averages are current as of May 31, 2026 (Dallas, Coppell), and half of off-market homes miss by more than the figure shown. Coppell is where our team is based, so that $38,300 typical miss isn't abstract to us.
And the tail is where it really stings. Zillow's DFW off-market data shows 69.02% of homes within 10% of the sale price, which means roughly 3 in 10 off-market Zestimates miss by more than 10% (source). On the average Dallas home that's a miss of more than $31,000; on the average Coppell home, more than $62,600. About 1 in 9 (the 11.5% outside Zillow's within-20% figure) miss by more than 20%, over $125,000 on a Coppell-average home.
To be fair in both directions: a miss can run high or low. Price off a Zestimate that's $30,000 high and your listing sits while the market shops your overpriced house against better-priced neighbors. Price off one that's $30,000 low and you hand that money to your buyer. Neither is a risk you need to take, because better data exists; more on that below.
Why off-market Zestimates struggle, especially in Texas
Zillow is transparent about how the Zestimate works: it's a neural-network model that draws on county and tax assessor records, direct MLS feeds, home characteristics, prior sales, and market trends, across 110+ million homes (source). When a home is listed, the model gets fresh, detailed, human-verified data. When it isn't, the model leans on records and extrapolation.
Texas makes that harder in one specific way: Texas is a non-disclosure state. Governmental entities, including county appraisal districts, cannot compel anyone to disclose what a home actually sold for (source), which is why sale prices generally don't show up in the public records that automated models rely on. Sold prices are reported to the MLS by listing brokers under MLS rules (source), which is why licensed agents work from a far more complete sold-price picture than the public records that anchor automated models. County and tax records are one of the Zestimate's named data sources, and in Texas those records are missing the single most important fact about every comparable sale: the price.
Zillow also notes that its model may draw on data from a geographic area as large as a county to estimate a single home, and that its method differs from a comparative market analysis done by an agent (source). County-sized data is a sensible way to value 110 million homes at once. It's just not how anyone would value yours.
When a Zestimate is most likely to mislead
Three situations come up constantly in our work, and all three trace back to data the model can't see:
1. Renovations the county doesn't know about. Zillow states it directly: unreported additions, updates, and remodels aren't reflected in the Zestimate (source). If you gutted the kitchen, added a primary suite, or finished out a bonus room without that making it into tax records or your Zillow home facts, the model is valuing a house that no longer exists. The same cuts the other way: the model can't see deferred maintenance either, so an original-condition home can carry a Zestimate inflated by its renovated neighbors.
2. Unique homes and lots. Zillow acknowledges that accuracy depends on the depth and quality of available data and varies by location and property (source). Models are at their best with uniform tract homes and plentiful nearby sales. Acreage, creek lots, golf-course frontage, atypical floor plans, casitas, heavy trees on one side of the street and power lines on the other: these are exactly the homes where the comparable-sales math gets hard, and where the model's county-wide extrapolation papers over what makes your property worth more (or less).
3. Fast-moving or split submarkets. A model that updates from recorded data is always looking slightly backward. In a submarket where homes go pending in days, and Zillow's own page shows Coppell homes going pending in around 9 days (source), the freshest signal is what's pending right now at what list price, with how many offers. That's MLS-and-boots-on-the-ground information. The same applies when one price band is moving and another is sitting: DFW is rarely one market, and a metro-trained model smooths over those seams.
What a CMA does differently
A comparative market analysis is the agent version of the same exercise, done at street level instead of county level. When we run a CMA, we:
- Start from actual sold prices in the MLS, the data non-disclosure keeps out of public records
- Pick true comparables, same school feed, same side of the tollway, same lot type, instead of whatever sold within model range
- Adjust for condition and updates based on what's actually inside your house, not what the tax record says
- Read the live market: current pendings, days on market, price reductions, and what buyers are writing offers on this month
- Account for terms: concessions, leasebacks, and cash-versus-financed sales that make two identical "sold prices" mean different things
That last mile is the difference between a statistically reasonable estimate and a number you can actually list at. It's also why Zillow itself, in its own FAQ, encourages supplementing the Zestimate with a professional appraisal or a CMA from a real estate agent (source).
So should you ignore your Zestimate? No, use it for what it's good at
We mean this sincerely: the Zestimate is a fine starting point, and Zillow describes it exactly that way: a free, transparent starting point for understanding what a home may be worth. As Zillow puts it, "It is not an appraisal and can't be used in place of an appraisal" (source).
Use your Zestimate to:
- Get a ballpark before you start a bigger conversation
- Watch the general direction of your equity over time
- Sanity-check a number that seems wildly off in either direction
Don't use it to:
- Set your list price
- Decide an offer is too high or too low to the dollar
- Settle an estate, a divorce, or a buyout: those need an appraisal or a CMA, and sometimes both
If you're within a year of selling, the move is simple: keep the Zestimate as your rough sketch, then get a real number. Our home valuation is free, there's no obligation, and it comes from a person who's seen your street; in many DFW neighborhoods, one of us has sold the comp the model is leaning on. After 440+ families served across Dallas–Fort Worth, we've watched a lot of Zestimates meet a lot of closing statements, and the honest summary is the one Zillow's own data tells: close on average, expensive at the edges.
Get your real number. Or reach out / call (972) 916-9646, happy to talk through what your Zestimate is and isn't seeing.
For more on pricing strategy, see how long it takes to sell a house and why pricing it right from day one matters.
Zestimate accuracy FAQ
How accurate is a Zestimate in 2026?
Per Zillow's published data (refreshed June 2, 2026), the nationwide median error rate is 1.76% for on-market homes and 7.22% for off-market homes. In Dallas–Fort Worth, it's 1.62% on-market and 6.12% off-market (source). Median means half of homes miss by more than that.
Is a Zestimate an appraisal?
No. Zillow states that the Zestimate is not an appraisal and can't be used in its place, and that most lending professionals and institutions will only use professional appraisals when making loan-related decisions (source). An appraisal is performed by a licensed appraiser; a Zestimate is a computer-generated estimate.
Why did my Zestimate change when I listed my home?
Because the model gained new inputs. Zillow explains that once a home goes on the market, the Zestimate incorporates listing information, including the list price and recent market activity, that isn't available for off-market homes (source). That's also why on-market accuracy figures are so much stronger than off-market ones.
Does my Zestimate include my renovation?
Only if Zillow knows about it. Unreported additions, updates, and remodels aren't reflected in the Zestimate (source). Updating your home facts on Zillow can help, but the model still can't judge quality or condition the way a walkthrough can.
Are Zestimates less reliable in Texas?
Texas's non-disclosure status makes the model's job harder: governmental entities, including appraisal districts, can't compel anyone to disclose a sale price (source), so sold prices generally stay out of the public records models rely on. Sold prices are reported to the MLS, which licensed agents can access. Zillow's published DFW off-market median error is 6.12% (source).
What's the difference between a Zestimate and a CMA?
A Zestimate is an automated model estimate built from records and data feeds, drawing on an area up to county size (source). A CMA is prepared by an agent using street-level MLS comps, adjusted for your home's actual condition, lot, and the live market. Zillow itself recommends supplementing the Zestimate with a CMA or appraisal (source).
Should I price my home at its Zestimate?
No, use it as a starting point, not a list price. In DFW, roughly 3 in 10 off-market Zestimates miss the eventual sale price by more than 10% (source), which is tens of thousands of dollars at local prices. Get a free home valuation before you set a number.
Zestimate accuracy figures and home-value estimates cited here come from Zillow's published data, last refreshed June 2, 2026 and accessed June 12, 2026; Texas non-disclosure context is from Texas REALTORS. Individual results vary by home, lot, and submarket. A Zestimate is not an appraisal, and this article is general information, not an appraisal or financial advice.
